Respecting Randomness

by bauer on April 9, 2008

This is a letter to the Editor of the Denver Post. The article Ski deaths prompt look for link demonstrates how we humans are compelled to create patterns to explain things - and how those who should know better don’t stop those with credentials from doing so. Numbers are used, statistics are implied, and causes are stipulated - all without any sound basis in truly rational reasoning. The author strives to imply that groomed slopes are at fault. 9 of the 17 hit trees on groomed runs. He goes on to say that 7 of those 9 had helmets on. Maybe the helmets were at fault. Ridiculous? Certainly. Just as ridiculous as any of the other cause-and-effect relations you could surmise. The lack of intellectual rigor goes on. The author states that there “rarely is statistical proof supporting one theory for why people die skiing”. The phrase “statistical proof” is an oxymoron. You have correlation with statistics, not proof. As such, the choice of word should be “never” not “rarely.”

In any case, the truly random thing about this letter is that I’m actually on the Management Team of Slope Watch, part of Ski Patrol at Copper Mountain. I’ve “stood post” at Copper for seven years helping everyone have as enjoyable a skiing and riding experience as possible in congested areas. I stated on my blog that there “are no patterns” in these incidents. This brought the comment from the author in an email exchange that this was the “canned response from every Kool-aid drinker who has ever earned a dollar from a skier”. I’m actually a volunteer, have never earned a dollar from Copper, and don’t imbibe high fructose drinks. BUT NONE OF THIS IS THE POINT. You could replace the article with something about food poisoning in the restaurant industry. It doesn’t matter. I don’t care about the ski industry. What I do care about is intellectual rigor and the responsibility of journalists - and their editors - not to so blithely dismiss the bitterly random unique circumstance of each one of these tragic deaths by trying to explain them in some cartoon-like semblance of intellectualism. It repels the reality and trivializes the tragic.

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